Norrby IF 0–2 Vasby United: Result & Stats

Norrby IF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Vasby United

O. Nnamani 45+1'

B. Ajeti 22'

8/26/2018

Superettan · Round 20Borås Arena (Borås)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Norrby IF44%

×Draw26%

Vasby United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norrby IFExpected goals in this matchVasby United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.16

Norrby IF

1.48

Vasby United

1.16

Norrby IF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 77 away

1.38

creates per match

1.03

1.29

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Norrby IF

1.38

Vasby United

1.03

allows per match

Norrby IF

1.29

Vasby United

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norrby IF+0.00on par

Vasby United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrby IF ↓

Vasby United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norrby IF or draw

70%

Norrby IF or Vasby United

74%

Draw or Vasby United

56%

Winning margin

Norrby IF wins by 2+

22%

Vasby United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Norrby IF 1+ goals

77%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

43%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

19%

Vasby United 1+ goals

69%

Vasby United 2+ goals

32%

Vasby United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

60%

Vasby United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrby IF at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 82 matches

Vasby United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrby IF attack 1.38 + Vasby United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vasby United attack 1.03 + Norrby IF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Norrby IF scores more

44%

level

26%

Vasby United scores more

30%

Norrby IF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

B. Ajeti

42'

A. Eriksson← N. Osmanagic

45+1'

O. Nnamani

64'

A. Krasnici← M. Axengren

73'

L. Nilsson← M. Översjö

83'

O. Akpoveta← B. Ajeti

86'

G. Jarl← O. Nnamani

Norrby

Vasby

31

77

22

19

2

3

21

14

17

9

⚽

▼

Ajeti

16

⚽

▼

Nnamani

1

Krasniqi

28

▼

4

17

13

2

8

16

▼

Osmanagic

6

▼

Axengren

14

Saidi

19

Almqvist

Manager: K. Hatami

42'▲A. Eriksson←▼N. Osmanagic

64'▲A. Krasnici←▼M. Axengren

73'▲L. Nilsson←▼M. Översjö

Norrby IF substitutes

18Eriksson11Krasnici9Nilsson7Mehovic10Istrefi31Ekström

Manager: N. Miljanovic

83'▲O. Akpoveta←▼B. Ajeti

86'▲G. Jarl←▼O. Nnamani

Vasby United substitutes

18Akpoveta5Jarl7Ali8Camara4Pelé94Wellyson24Jakobsson