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AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF — Superettan 2026

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Norrby IF
Norrby IF
J. Manns 29'
12/5/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 30Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna50%
×Draw25%
Norrby IF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.58
Norrby IF
1.04

AFC Eskilstuna creates 52% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 84 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.59
Norrby IF
1.12

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
0.95
Norrby IF
1.56

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Norrby IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
75%
AFC Eskilstuna or Norrby IF
75%
Draw or Norrby IF
50%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
26%
Norrby IF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
79%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
47%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
21%
Norrby IF 1+ goals
65%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
28%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
67%
Norrby IF (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.59 + Norrby IF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Norrby IF attack 1.12 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
50%
level
25%
Norrby IF scores more
25%

AFC Eskilstuna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
N. Savolainen
29'
J. Manns
59'
B. Arapovic← I. Pekalski
59'
A. Saidi← W. Ärlig
63'
C. Omeje
65'
I. Lushaku
66'
V. Götesson← C. Omeje
72'
N. Osmanagic
73'
D. Rexhepi← D. Vukojevic
78'
O. Nnamani
82'
T. Hartzell← R. Williams
84'
O. Akpoveta← V. Bergh
86'
T. Hartzell
90+2'
A. Kojic← Gabriel Somi

Possession

53%AFC

Shots

4AFC

Statistics

AFCNorrby
Overview
53%Possession47%
4Total Shots4
1Corners10
10Fouls11
Shots
4Total Shots4
2On Target1
2Off Target3
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF

AFC Eskilstuna beat Norrby IF 1-0 in Superettan on December 5, 2020.

Goals: J. Manns (29').

AFC Eskilstuna controlled possession (53%) and registered 4 shots to 4.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.