Norrby IF 2–1 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Norrby IF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

AFC Eskilstuna

R. Strömberg 44'

A. Salo 11'

A. Ahl-Holmström 66'

5/23/2021

Superettan · Round 7Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Norrby IF45%

×Draw26%

AFC Eskilstuna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norrby IFExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.15

Norrby IF

1.49

AFC Eskilstuna

1.15

Norrby IF creates 30% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 75 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Norrby IF

1.38

AFC Eskilstuna

1.00

allows per match

Norrby IF

1.29

AFC Eskilstuna

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norrby IF+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrby IF ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norrby IF or draw

71%

Norrby IF or AFC Eskilstuna

74%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

55%

Winning margin

Norrby IF wins by 2+

22%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Norrby IF 1+ goals

77%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

44%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

19%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

68%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

32%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

61%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrby IF at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 82 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrby IF attack 1.38 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 + Norrby IF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Norrby IF scores more

45%

level

26%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

29%

Norrby IF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

A. Salo

12'

York Rafael

44'

R. Strömberg

46'

F. Gustafsson← R. Örqvist

66'

A. Ahl-Holmström

68'

A. Alsanati← A. Linnér

68'

V. Fors← J. Manns

71'

B. Jobe← M. Andersson

73'

Deniz Yaldir

81'

V. Götesson← I. Touré

81'

C. Omeje← K. Mammar

86'

J. Brannefalk← R. Strömberg

86'

N. Osmanagic← D. Yaldır

90+2'

Nino Osmanagic

90+4'

Ismet Lushaku

90+4'

W. Ärlig← D. Vukojevic

Possession

Shots

Statistics

NorrbyAFC

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots10

12Corners6

8Fouls5

Shots

10Total Shots10

6On Target4

4Off Target6

Passing

50%Possession50%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls5

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0