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RTC vs Namlha — Premier League 2023

RTC
RTC
FT
7 – 1
Namlha
Namlha
8/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2RTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

RTC86%
×Draw9%
Namlha5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RTC
3.89
Namlha
0.96

RTC creates 305% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 9 away

creates per match

RTC
2.66
Namlha
0.89

allows per match

RTC
1.03
Namlha
5.11

finishing

RTC+0.00on par
Namlha+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RTC ↓

Namlha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

RTC or draw
95%
RTC or Namlha
91%
Draw or Namlha
14%

Winning margin

RTC wins by 2+
71%
Namlha wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

RTC 1+ goals
98%
RTC 2+ goals
89%
RTC 3+ goals
72%
Namlha 1+ goals
62%
Namlha 2+ goals
25%
Namlha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RTC (draw refunded)
94%
Namlha (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RTC at home — creates 2.66, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Namlha away — creates 0.89, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RTC attack 2.66 + Namlha defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 3.89

Namlha attack 0.89 + RTC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

RTC scores more
86%
level
9%
Namlha scores more
5%

RTC at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RTC vs Namlha

RTC beat Namlha 7-1 in Premier League on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at RTC Football Ground in Thimphu.