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Namlha vs RTC — Premier League 2023

Namlha
Namlha
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
RTC
RTC
12/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Changjiji Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Namlha11%
×Draw14%
RTC74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namlha
1.11
RTC
2.96

RTC creates 167% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 31 away

creates per match

Namlha
0.78
RTC
2.13

allows per match

Namlha
3.78
RTC
1.45

finishing

Namlha+0.00on par
RTC+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namlha ↓

RTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Namlha or draw
26%
Namlha or RTC
86%
Draw or RTC
89%

Winning margin

Namlha wins by 2+
4%
RTC wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Namlha 1+ goals
67%
Namlha 2+ goals
30%
Namlha 3+ goals
10%
RTC 1+ goals
95%
RTC 2+ goals
79%
RTC 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Namlha (draw refunded)
13%
RTC (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namlha at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

RTC away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namlha attack 0.78 + RTC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.11

RTC attack 2.13 + Namlha defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Namlha scores more
11%
level
14%
RTC scores more
74%

RTC at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Namlha 0 – 2 RTC

RTC beat Namlha 2-0 in Premier League on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Changjiji Stadium in Thimphu.