RTC 2–0 Druk Lhayul: Result & Stats

RTC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Druk Lhayul

9/24/2023

Premier League · Round 5RTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

RTC65%

×Draw17%

Druk Lhayul18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RTCExpected goals in this matchDruk Lhayul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

1.41

RTC

2.78

Druk Lhayul

1.41

RTC creates 97% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 9 away

2.66

creates per match

1.78

1.03

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

RTC

2.66

Druk Lhayul

1.78

allows per match

RTC

1.03

Druk Lhayul

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RTC+0.00on par

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RTC ↓

Druk Lhayul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

RTC or draw

82%

RTC or Druk Lhayul

83%

Draw or Druk Lhayul

35%

Winning margin

RTC wins by 2+

45%

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

RTC 1+ goals

94%

RTC 2+ goals

76%

RTC 3+ goals

51%

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals

76%

Druk Lhayul 2+ goals

41%

Druk Lhayul 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

RTC (draw refunded)

79%

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RTC at home — creates 2.66, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Druk Lhayul away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RTC attack 2.66 + Druk Lhayul defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.78

Druk Lhayul attack 1.78 + RTC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

RTC scores more

65%

level

17%

Druk Lhayul scores more

18%

RTC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff