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Druk Lhayul vs RTC — Premier League 2023

Druk Lhayul
Druk Lhayul
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
RTC
RTC
10/31/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Druk Lhayul38%
×Draw19%
RTC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Druk Lhayul
2.44
RTC
2.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 31 away

creates per match

Druk Lhayul
3.44
RTC
2.13

allows per match

Druk Lhayul
3.11
RTC
1.45

finishing

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par
RTC+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druk Lhayul ↓

RTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Druk Lhayul or draw
56%
Druk Lhayul or RTC
81%
Draw or RTC
62%

Winning margin

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+
22%
RTC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals
91%
Druk Lhayul 2+ goals
70%
Druk Lhayul 3+ goals
43%
RTC 1+ goals
93%
RTC 2+ goals
73%
RTC 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)
46%
RTC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druk Lhayul at home — creates 3.44, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

RTC away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druk Lhayul attack 3.44 + RTC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.44

RTC attack 2.13 + Druk Lhayul defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Druk Lhayul scores more
38%
level
19%
RTC scores more
44%

RTC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Druk Lhayul 2–5 RTC

RTC beat Druk Lhayul 5-2 in Premier League on October 31, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.