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RTC vs Bhutan U19 — Premier League 2023

RTC
RTC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bhutan U19
Bhutan U19
5/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1RTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

RTC68%
×Draw17%
Bhutan U1915%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RTC
2.62
Bhutan U19
1.15

RTC creates 128% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 23 away

creates per match

RTC
2.66
Bhutan U19
1.26

allows per match

RTC
1.03
Bhutan U19
2.57

finishing

RTC+0.00on par
Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RTC ↓

Bhutan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

RTC or draw
85%
RTC or Bhutan U19
83%
Draw or Bhutan U19
32%

Winning margin

RTC wins by 2+
47%
Bhutan U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

RTC 1+ goals
93%
RTC 2+ goals
73%
RTC 3+ goals
48%
Bhutan U19 1+ goals
68%
Bhutan U19 2+ goals
32%
Bhutan U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

RTC (draw refunded)
82%
Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RTC at home — creates 2.66, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Bhutan U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RTC attack 2.66 + Bhutan U19 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.62

Bhutan U19 attack 1.26 + RTC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

RTC scores more
68%
level
17%
Bhutan U19 scores more
15%

RTC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RTC 0 – 1 Bhutan U19

Bhutan U19 beat RTC 1-0 in Premier League on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at RTC Football Ground in Thimphu.