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Bhutan U19 vs RTC — Premier League 2023

Bhutan U19
Bhutan U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RTC
RTC
7/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bhutan U1929%
×Draw22%
RTC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bhutan U19
1.50
RTC
1.98

RTC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bhutan U19
1.55
RTC
2.13

allows per match

Bhutan U19
1.82
RTC
1.45

finishing

Bhutan U19+0.00on par
RTC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bhutan U19 ↓

RTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bhutan U19 or draw
51%
Bhutan U19 or RTC
78%
Draw or RTC
71%

Winning margin

Bhutan U19 wins by 2+
13%
RTC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Bhutan U19 1+ goals
78%
Bhutan U19 2+ goals
44%
Bhutan U19 3+ goals
19%
RTC 1+ goals
86%
RTC 2+ goals
59%
RTC 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)
38%
RTC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bhutan U19 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

RTC away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bhutan U19 attack 1.55 + RTC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

RTC attack 2.13 + Bhutan U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bhutan U19 scores more
29%
level
22%
RTC scores more
49%

RTC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bhutan U19 1–1 RTC

Bhutan U19 and RTC drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.