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RSV Eintracht vs Lichtenberg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lichtenberg
Lichtenberg
7/12/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

RSV Eintracht50%
×Draw18%
Lichtenberg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSV Eintracht
2.78
Lichtenberg
2.19

RSV Eintracht creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

RSV Eintracht
3.18
Lichtenberg
2.38

allows per match

RSV Eintracht
2.00
Lichtenberg
2.38

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par
Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

Lichtenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw
69%
RSV Eintracht or Lichtenberg
82%
Draw or Lichtenberg
50%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
32%
Lichtenberg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
94%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
76%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
51%
Lichtenberg 1+ goals
89%
Lichtenberg 2+ goals
64%
Lichtenberg 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
62%
Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 3.18, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Lichtenberg away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 3.18 + Lichtenberg defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.78

Lichtenberg attack 2.38 + RSV Eintracht defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more
50%
level
18%
Lichtenberg scores more
31%

RSV Eintracht at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RSV Eintracht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

RSV
Lichtenberg
Patrick Hinze
Manager: Patrick Hinze
R. Raab
Manager: R. Raab

Match Recap: RSV Eintracht vs Lichtenberg

RSV Eintracht beat Lichtenberg 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 12, 2026.