RSV Eintracht 0–3 Lichtenberg: Result & Stats

RSV Eintracht

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Lichtenberg

J. Gruber 81', 79'

G. Viera 60'

10/7/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 9Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

RSV Eintracht24%

×Draw20%

Lichtenberg56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSV EintrachtExpected goals in this matchLichtenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.30

RSV Eintracht

1.44

Lichtenberg

2.30

Lichtenberg creates 60% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 45 away

1.69

creates per match

3.04

1.56

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

RSV Eintracht

1.69

Lichtenberg

3.04

allows per match

RSV Eintracht

1.56

Lichtenberg

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par

Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

Lichtenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw

44%

RSV Eintracht or Lichtenberg

80%

Draw or Lichtenberg

76%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+

10%

Lichtenberg wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals

76%

RSV Eintracht 2+ goals

42%

RSV Eintracht 3+ goals

18%

Lichtenberg 1+ goals

90%

Lichtenberg 2+ goals

67%

Lichtenberg 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)

29%

Lichtenberg (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Lichtenberg away — creates 3.04, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 1.69 + Lichtenberg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lichtenberg attack 3.04 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more

24%

level

20%

Lichtenberg scores more

56%

Lichtenberg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

G. Viera

79'

J. Gruber

81'

J. Gruber

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff