RSV Eintracht 1–0 Eintracht Mahlsdorf

RSV Eintracht

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Mahlsdorf

6/8/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

RSV Eintracht36%

×Draw23%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSV EintrachtExpected goals in this matchEintracht Mahlsdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.66

RSV Eintracht

1.56

Eintracht Mahlsdorf

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 76 away

1.69

creates per match

1.75

1.56

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

RSV Eintracht

1.69

Eintracht Mahlsdorf

1.75

allows per match

RSV Eintracht

1.56

Eintracht Mahlsdorf

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par

Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

Eintracht Mahlsdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw

60%

RSV Eintracht or Eintracht Mahlsdorf

77%

Draw or Eintracht Mahlsdorf

64%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+

18%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals

79%

RSV Eintracht 2+ goals

46%

RSV Eintracht 3+ goals

21%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals

81%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals

49%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)

47%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 1.69 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 1.75 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more

36%

level

23%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more

40%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff