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Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs RSV Eintracht — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
10/30/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 11Sportanlage Am Rosenhag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf49%
×Draw22%
RSV Eintracht29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.00
RSV Eintracht
1.51

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 32% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 51 away

creates per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.03
RSV Eintracht
1.67

allows per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.35
RSV Eintracht
1.98

finishing

Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par
RSV Eintracht+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Mahlsdorf ↓

RSV Eintracht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Eintracht Mahlsdorf or draw
71%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf or RSV Eintracht
78%
Draw or RSV Eintracht
51%

Winning margin

Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
28%
RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
86%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
59%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
32%
RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
78%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
44%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
63%
RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.35 · 78 matches

RSV Eintracht away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 2.03 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.00

RSV Eintracht attack 1.67 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
49%
level
22%
RSV Eintracht scores more
29%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs RSV Eintracht

Eintracht Mahlsdorf and RSV Eintracht drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Am Rosenhag in Berlin.