RSK Rabrovo 2–1 Real Podunavci: Result & Stats

RSK Rabrovo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Podunavci

4/20/2022

Srpska Liga - West · West - 23Stadion RSK Rabrovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

RSK Rabrovo30%

×Draw26%

Real Podunavci44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSK RabrovoExpected goals in this matchReal Podunavci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.44

RSK Rabrovo

1.13

Real Podunavci

1.44

Real Podunavci creates 27% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

1.25

creates per match

1.12

1.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

RSK Rabrovo

1.25

Real Podunavci

1.12

allows per match

RSK Rabrovo

1.75

Real Podunavci

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par

Real Podunavci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSK Rabrovo ↓

Real Podunavci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

RSK Rabrovo or draw

56%

RSK Rabrovo or Real Podunavci

74%

Draw or Real Podunavci

70%

Winning margin

RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+

12%

Real Podunavci wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals

68%

RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals

31%

RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals

11%

Real Podunavci 1+ goals

76%

Real Podunavci 2+ goals

42%

Real Podunavci 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)

40%

Real Podunavci (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSK Rabrovo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Real Podunavci away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSK Rabrovo attack 1.25 + Real Podunavci defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Real Podunavci attack 1.12 + RSK Rabrovo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

RSK Rabrovo scores more

30%

level

26%

Real Podunavci scores more

44%

Real Podunavci at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Podunavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff