Real Podunavci 2–1 RSK Rabrovo: Result & Stats

Real Podunavci

FT

2 – 1

RSK Rabrovo

10/2/2021

Srpska Liga - West · West - 8Stadion Real Podunavci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Podunavci62%

×Draw23%

RSK Rabrovo15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PodunavciExpected goals in this matchRSK Rabrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.74

Real Podunavci

1.79

RSK Rabrovo

0.74

Real Podunavci creates 142% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.53

creates per match

0.74

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Real Podunavci

1.53

RSK Rabrovo

0.74

allows per match

Real Podunavci

0.74

RSK Rabrovo

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Podunavci+0.00on par

RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Podunavci ↓

RSK Rabrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Podunavci or draw

85%

Real Podunavci or RSK Rabrovo

77%

Draw or RSK Rabrovo

38%

Winning margin

Real Podunavci wins by 2+

36%

RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Podunavci 1+ goals

83%

Real Podunavci 2+ goals

53%

Real Podunavci 3+ goals

26%

RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals

52%

RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals

17%

RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Real Podunavci (draw refunded)

81%

RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Podunavci at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

RSK Rabrovo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Podunavci attack 1.53 + RSK Rabrovo defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.79

RSK Rabrovo attack 0.74 + Real Podunavci defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Real Podunavci scores more

62%

level

23%

RSK Rabrovo scores more

15%

Real Podunavci at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Real Podunavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff