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RSK Rabrovo vs Mladi Radnik — Srpska Liga - West 2025

RSK Rabrovo
RSK Rabrovo
FT
0 – 4
Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
10/10/2021Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 9Stadion RSK Rabrovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

RSK Rabrovo20%
×Draw25%
Mladi Radnik55%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSK Rabrovo
0.85
Mladi Radnik
1.60

Mladi Radnik creates 88% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 4 away

creates per match

RSK Rabrovo
1.20
Mladi Radnik
1.25

allows per match

RSK Rabrovo
1.95
Mladi Radnik
0.50

finishing

RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par
Mladi Radnik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSK Rabrovo ↓

Mladi Radnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RSK Rabrovo or draw
45%
RSK Rabrovo or Mladi Radnik
75%
Draw or Mladi Radnik
80%

Winning margin

RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+
6%
Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals
57%
RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals
21%
RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals
5%
Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
80%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
47%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)
27%
Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSK Rabrovo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Mladi Radnik away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSK Rabrovo attack 1.20 + Mladi Radnik defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Mladi Radnik attack 1.25 + RSK Rabrovo defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

RSK Rabrovo scores more
20%
level
25%
Mladi Radnik scores more
55%

Mladi Radnik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mladi Radnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSK Rabrovo vs Mladi Radnik

Mladi Radnik beat RSK Rabrovo 4-0 in Srpska Liga - West on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion RSK Rabrovo in Rabrovo.