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Mladi Radnik vs RSK Rabrovo — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RSK Rabrovo
RSK Rabrovo
4/23/2022Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 24Stadion Vašarište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mladi Radnik57%
×Draw26%
RSK Rabrovo18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladi Radnik
1.55
RSK Rabrovo
0.73

Mladi Radnik creates 112% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mladi Radnik
1.00
RSK Rabrovo
0.78

allows per match

Mladi Radnik
0.67
RSK Rabrovo
2.11

finishing

Mladi Radnik+0.00on par
RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladi Radnik ↓

RSK Rabrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mladi Radnik or draw
82%
Mladi Radnik or RSK Rabrovo
74%
Draw or RSK Rabrovo
43%

Winning margin

Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
30%
RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
79%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
46%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
20%
RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals
52%
RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals
17%
RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
76%
RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladi Radnik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

RSK Rabrovo away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladi Radnik attack 1.00 + RSK Rabrovo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.55

RSK Rabrovo attack 0.78 + Mladi Radnik defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mladi Radnik scores more
57%
level
26%
RSK Rabrovo scores more
18%

Mladi Radnik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mladi Radnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mladi Radnik 1–0 RSK Rabrovo

Mladi Radnik beat RSK Rabrovo 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vašarište in Požarevac.