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RSD Alcalá vs RSC Internacional — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
10/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSD Alcalá32%
×Draw24%
RSC Internacional43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.34
RSC Internacional
1.59

RSC Internacional creates 19% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 15 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
RSC Internacional
2.33

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
RSC Internacional
1.13

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

RSC Internacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
57%
RSD Alcalá or RSC Internacional
76%
Draw or RSC Internacional
68%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
14%
RSC Internacional wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
74%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
39%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
15%
RSC Internacional 1+ goals
80%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
47%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
43%
RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
32%
level
24%
RSC Internacional scores more
43%

RSC Internacional at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RSD Alcalá 0 – 2 RSC Internacional

RSC Internacional beat RSD Alcalá 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.