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RSC Internacional vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
2/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 19Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional59%
×Draw22%
RSD Alcalá19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSC Internacional
1.86
RSD Alcalá
0.95

RSC Internacional creates 96% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 99 away

creates per match

RSC Internacional
2.53
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

RSC Internacional
0.67
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw
81%
RSC Internacional or RSD Alcalá
78%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
41%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+
34%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals
84%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
55%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
28%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
61%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
25%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
76%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.86

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

RSC Internacional scores more
59%
level
22%
RSD Alcalá scores more
19%

RSC Internacional at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RSC Internacional 4 – 0 RSD Alcalá

RSC Internacional beat RSD Alcalá 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5 in Madrid.