RSD Alcalá 1–2 Real Madrid III: Result & Stats

RSD Alcalá

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Madrid III

4/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

RSD Alcalá37%

×Draw29%

Real Madrid III34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSD AlcaláExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.10

RSD Alcalá

1.16

Real Madrid III

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

1.55

creates per match

1.35

0.86

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

RSD Alcalá

1.55

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

RSD Alcalá

0.86

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw

66%

RSD Alcalá or Real Madrid III

71%

Draw or Real Madrid III

63%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+

15%

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals

69%

RSD Alcalá 2+ goals

32%

RSD Alcalá 3+ goals

11%

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

67%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

30%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)

52%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.16

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more

37%

level

29%

Real Madrid III scores more

34%

RSD Alcalá at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III

Real Madrid III beat RSD Alcalá 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.

RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III