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Real Madrid III vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Madrid III
Real Madrid III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
12/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid III61%
×Draw23%
RSD Alcalá16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid III
1.75
RSD Alcalá
0.76

Real Madrid III creates 130% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

Real Madrid III
2.29
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Real Madrid III
0.29
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw
84%
Real Madrid III or RSD Alcalá
77%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
39%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+
35%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals
83%
Real Madrid III 2+ goals
52%
Real Madrid III 3+ goals
25%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
53%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
18%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)
79%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 2.29 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Real Madrid III defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Madrid III scores more
61%
level
23%
RSD Alcalá scores more
16%

Real Madrid III at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid III vs RSD Alcalá

Real Madrid III beat RSD Alcalá 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7 in Madrid.