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RSD Alcalá vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
11/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

RSD Alcalá63%
×Draw22%
Real Aranjuez16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.92
Real Aranjuez
0.83

RSD Alcalá creates 131% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 31 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
Real Aranjuez
0.81

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
Real Aranjuez
2.29

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Real Aranjuez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
84%
RSD Alcalá or Real Aranjuez
78%
Draw or Real Aranjuez
37%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
38%
Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
85%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
57%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
30%
Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
56%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
20%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
80%
Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.92

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
63%
level
22%
Real Aranjuez scores more
16%

RSD Alcalá at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RSD Alcalá 3 – 1 Real Aranjuez

RSD Alcalá beat Real Aranjuez 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.