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Real Aranjuez vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
3/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez29%
×Draw27%
RSD Alcalá44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
1.05
RSD Alcalá
1.38

RSD Alcalá creates 31% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 99 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
56%
Real Aranjuez or RSD Alcalá
73%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
71%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
11%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
65%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
28%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
9%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
75%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
40%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
39%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
29%
level
27%
RSD Alcalá scores more
44%

RSD Alcalá at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Aranjuez 2 – 3 RSD Alcalá

RSD Alcalá beat Real Aranjuez 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.