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RSD Alcalá vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
4/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

RSD Alcalá48%
×Draw27%
Pozuelo Alarcón25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.41
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.92

RSD Alcalá creates 53% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.53
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.87
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
75%
RSD Alcalá or Pozuelo Alarcón
73%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
52%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
24%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
76%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
41%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
17%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
60%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
23%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
66%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.53 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
48%
level
27%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
25%

RSD Alcalá at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSD Alcalá 3–1 Pozuelo Alarcón

RSD Alcalá beat Pozuelo Alarcón 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.