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Pozuelo Alarcón vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón37%
×Draw27%
RSD Alcalá35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.26
RSD Alcalá
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 99 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.21
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
65%
Pozuelo Alarcón or RSD Alcalá
73%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
63%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
16%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
72%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
36%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
13%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
70%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
34%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
51%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 96 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
37%
level
27%
RSD Alcalá scores more
35%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Pozuelo Alarcón 1–0 RSD Alcalá

Pozuelo Alarcón beat RSD Alcalá 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.