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RSD Alcalá vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leganés II
Leganés II
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

RSD Alcalá39%
×Draw25%
Leganés II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.44
Leganés II
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 79 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
64%
RSD Alcalá or Leganés II
75%
Draw or Leganés II
61%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
18%
Leganés II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
76%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
42%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
18%
Leganés II 1+ goals
75%
Leganés II 2+ goals
40%
Leganés II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
52%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Leganés II attack 1.89 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
39%
level
25%
Leganés II scores more
36%

RSD Alcalá at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSD Alcalá vs Leganés II

RSD Alcalá beat Leganés II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.