Leganés II 0–0 RSD Alcalá: Result & Stats

Leganés II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

RSD Alcalá

3/30/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Leganés II43%

×Draw28%

RSD Alcalá29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leganés IIExpected goals in this matchRSD Alcalá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.02

Leganés II

1.30

RSD Alcalá

1.02

Leganés II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 99 away

1.41

creates per match

1.23

0.82

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Leganés II

1.41

RSD Alcalá

1.23

allows per match

Leganés II

0.82

RSD Alcalá

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

RSD Alcalá →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw

71%

Leganés II or RSD Alcalá

72%

Draw or RSD Alcalá

57%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+

20%

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals

73%

Leganés II 2+ goals

37%

Leganés II 3+ goals

14%

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals

64%

RSD Alcalá 2+ goals

27%

RSD Alcalá 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)

60%

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leganés II scores more

43%

level

28%

RSD Alcalá scores more

29%

Leganés II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leganés II vs RSD Alcalá

Leganés II and RSD Alcalá drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.

Leganés II vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Leganés II vs RSD Alcalá