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RSD Alcalá vs Flat Earth — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Flat Earth
Flat Earth
11/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

RSD Alcalá50%
×Draw28%
Flat Earth23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.38
Flat Earth
0.84

RSD Alcalá creates 64% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 28 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
Flat Earth
0.82

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
Flat Earth
1.21

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Flat Earth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
77%
RSD Alcalá or Flat Earth
72%
Draw or Flat Earth
50%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
24%
Flat Earth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
75%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
40%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
16%
Flat Earth 1+ goals
57%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
21%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
68%
Flat Earth (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
50%
level
28%
Flat Earth scores more
23%

RSD Alcalá at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSD Alcalá 0–2 Flat Earth

Flat Earth beat RSD Alcalá 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.