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Flat Earth vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Flat Earth
Flat Earth
CANC
00:00
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
4/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 33Campo de Fútbol Castroserna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Flat Earth40%
×Draw28%
RSD Alcalá32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flat Earth
1.23
RSD Alcalá
1.06

Flat Earth creates 16% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 99 away

creates per match

Flat Earth
1.25
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Flat Earth
0.89
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Flat Earth+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flat Earth ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Flat Earth or draw
68%
Flat Earth or RSD Alcalá
72%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
60%

Winning margin

Flat Earth wins by 2+
17%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Flat Earth 1+ goals
71%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
35%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
13%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
65%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
29%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Flat Earth (draw refunded)
56%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flat Earth at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flat Earth attack 1.25 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Flat Earth defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Flat Earth scores more
40%
level
28%
RSD Alcalá scores more
32%

Flat Earth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Flat Earth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flat Earth vs RSD Alcalá — Match Preview

Flat Earth face RSD Alcalá on April 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Flat Earth host RSD Alcalá at Campo de Fútbol Castroserna.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.