RSD Alcalá 2–0 Colonia Moscardó: Result & Stats

RSD Alcalá

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colonia Moscardó

10/14/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

RSD Alcalá57%

×Draw25%

Colonia Moscardó18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSD AlcaláExpected goals in this matchColonia Moscardó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.78

RSD Alcalá

1.61

Colonia Moscardó

0.78

RSD Alcalá creates 106% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 37 away

1.53

creates per match

0.70

0.87

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

RSD Alcalá

1.53

Colonia Moscardó

0.70

allows per match

RSD Alcalá

0.87

Colonia Moscardó

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Colonia Moscardó →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw

82%

RSD Alcalá or Colonia Moscardó

75%

Draw or Colonia Moscardó

43%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+

31%

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals

80%

RSD Alcalá 2+ goals

48%

RSD Alcalá 3+ goals

22%

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals

54%

Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals

18%

Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)

76%

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.53 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more

57%

level

25%

Colonia Moscardó scores more

18%

RSD Alcalá at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSD Alcalá 2–0 Colonia Moscardó

RSD Alcalá beat Colonia Moscardó 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.

RSD Alcalá vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSD Alcalá 2–0 Colonia Moscardó