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Colonia Moscardó vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
2/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Colonia Moscardó30%
×Draw26%
RSD Alcalá44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colonia Moscardó
1.17
RSD Alcalá
1.48

RSD Alcalá creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 99 away

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.14
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.73
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw
56%
Colonia Moscardó or RSD Alcalá
74%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
70%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
12%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
69%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
33%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
11%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
77%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
43%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
40%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more
30%
level
26%
RSD Alcalá scores more
44%

RSD Alcalá at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colonia Moscardó 0 – 1 RSD Alcalá

RSD Alcalá beat Colonia Moscardó 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.