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RSD Alcalá vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
2/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

RSD Alcalá45%
×Draw28%
Collado Villalba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.29
Collado Villalba
0.94

RSD Alcalá creates 37% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 49 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
73%
RSD Alcalá or Collado Villalba
72%
Draw or Collado Villalba
55%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
20%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
72%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
37%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
14%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
61%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
24%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
62%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
45%
level
28%
Collado Villalba scores more
27%

RSD Alcalá at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RSD Alcalá 1 – 0 Collado Villalba

RSD Alcalá beat Collado Villalba 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.