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Collado Villalba vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
3/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba34%
×Draw26%
RSD Alcalá40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collado Villalba
1.27
RSD Alcalá
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 99 away

creates per match

Collado Villalba
1.35
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Collado Villalba
1.55
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw
60%
Collado Villalba or RSD Alcalá
74%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
66%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+
15%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals
72%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
36%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
14%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
75%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
40%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
46%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Collado Villalba scores more
34%
level
26%
RSD Alcalá scores more
40%

RSD Alcalá at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Collado Villalba 3–2 RSD Alcalá

Collado Villalba beat RSD Alcalá 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.