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RSD Alcalá vs Cala Pozuelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cala Pozuelo
Cala Pozuelo
4/13/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

RSD Alcalá50%
×Draw25%
Cala Pozuelo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.60
Cala Pozuelo
1.05

RSD Alcalá creates 52% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
Cala Pozuelo
1.24

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
Cala Pozuelo
1.65

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Cala Pozuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
75%
RSD Alcalá or Cala Pozuelo
75%
Draw or Cala Pozuelo
50%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
26%
Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
80%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
47%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
22%
Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals
65%
Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals
28%
Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
67%
Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Cala Pozuelo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.24 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
50%
level
25%
Cala Pozuelo scores more
25%

RSD Alcalá at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSD Alcalá 3–0 Cala Pozuelo

RSD Alcalá beat Cala Pozuelo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.