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Cala Pozuelo vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Cala Pozuelo
Cala Pozuelo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
12/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cala Pozuelo33%
×Draw27%
RSD Alcalá40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cala Pozuelo
1.16
RSD Alcalá
1.32

RSD Alcalá creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

Cala Pozuelo
1.12
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Cala Pozuelo
1.41
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cala Pozuelo ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cala Pozuelo or draw
60%
Cala Pozuelo or RSD Alcalá
73%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
67%

Winning margin

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+
13%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals
69%
Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals
32%
Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals
11%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
73%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
38%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)
45%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cala Pozuelo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.12 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cala Pozuelo scores more
33%
level
27%
RSD Alcalá scores more
40%

RSD Alcalá at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Cala Pozuelo 0–4 RSD Alcalá

RSD Alcalá beat Cala Pozuelo 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo in Pozuelo de Alarcón.