Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RSD Alcalá vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

RSD Alcalá45%
×Draw26%
Alcobendas Sport29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.43
Alcobendas Sport
1.08

RSD Alcalá creates 32% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 117 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
71%
RSD Alcalá or Alcobendas Sport
74%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
55%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
22%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
76%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
42%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
17%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
66%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
29%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
61%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
45%
level
26%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
29%

RSD Alcalá at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RSD Alcalá 1 – 0 Alcobendas Sport

RSD Alcalá beat Alcobendas Sport 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.