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Alcobendas Sport vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
3/31/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Alcobendas Sport36%
×Draw27%
RSD Alcalá36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.25
RSD Alcalá
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 99 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
64%
Alcobendas Sport or RSD Alcalá
73%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
64%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
16%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
71%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
36%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
13%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
71%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
36%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
50%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
36%
level
27%
RSD Alcalá scores more
36%

Alcobendas Sport at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcobendas Sport 0 – 3 RSD Alcalá

RSD Alcalá beat Alcobendas Sport 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama in Paracuellos de Jarama.