RSC Internacional 4–1 Real Aranjuez: Result & Stats

RSC Internacional

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Real Aranjuez

12/18/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional74%

×Draw16%

Real Aranjuez10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSC InternacionalExpected goals in this matchReal Aranjuez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

0.74

RSC Internacional

2.41

Real Aranjuez

0.74

RSC Internacional creates 226% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

2.53

creates per match

0.81

0.67

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

RSC Internacional

2.53

Real Aranjuez

0.81

allows per match

RSC Internacional

0.67

Real Aranjuez

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Real Aranjuez →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw

90%

RSC Internacional or Real Aranjuez

84%

Draw or Real Aranjuez

26%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+

51%

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals

91%

RSC Internacional 2+ goals

69%

RSC Internacional 3+ goals

43%

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals

52%

Real Aranjuez 2+ goals

17%

Real Aranjuez 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)

88%

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.41

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

RSC Internacional scores more

74%

level

16%

Real Aranjuez scores more

10%

RSC Internacional at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSC Internacional 4–1 Real Aranjuez

RSC Internacional beat Real Aranjuez 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 18, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5 in Madrid.

RSC Internacional vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSC Internacional 4–1 Real Aranjuez