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Real Aranjuez vs RSC Internacional — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
4/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Aranjuez19%
×Draw22%
RSC Internacional59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
1.01
RSC Internacional
1.93

RSC Internacional creates 91% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
RSC Internacional
2.33

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
RSC Internacional
1.13

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

RSC Internacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
41%
Real Aranjuez or RSC Internacional
78%
Draw or RSC Internacional
81%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
7%
RSC Internacional wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
64%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
27%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
8%
RSC Internacional 1+ goals
85%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
57%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
25%
RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
19%
level
22%
RSC Internacional scores more
59%

RSC Internacional at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Real Aranjuez 0–3 RSC Internacional

RSC Internacional beat Real Aranjuez 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.