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RSC Internacional vs Rayo Vallecano II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
3/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional61%
×Draw21%
Rayo Vallecano II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSC Internacional
2.03
Rayo Vallecano II
1.02

RSC Internacional creates 99% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

creates per match

RSC Internacional
2.53
Rayo Vallecano II
1.36

allows per match

RSC Internacional
0.67
Rayo Vallecano II
1.53

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Rayo Vallecano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw
82%
RSC Internacional or Rayo Vallecano II
79%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano II
39%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+
37%
Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals
87%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
60%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
33%
Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
64%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
27%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
77%
Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Rayo Vallecano II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.03

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.36 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

RSC Internacional scores more
61%
level
21%
Rayo Vallecano II scores more
18%

RSC Internacional at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RSC Internacional 0 – 0 Rayo Vallecano II

RSC Internacional and Rayo Vallecano II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5 in Madrid.