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Rayo Vallecano II vs RSC Internacional — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
11/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II30%
×Draw23%
RSC Internacional47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano II
1.44
RSC Internacional
1.84

RSC Internacional creates 28% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.76
RSC Internacional
2.33

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.35
RSC Internacional
1.13

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par
RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

RSC Internacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw
53%
Rayo Vallecano II or RSC Internacional
77%
Draw or RSC Internacional
70%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
14%
RSC Internacional wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
76%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
42%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
18%
RSC Internacional 1+ goals
84%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
55%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
39%
RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more
30%
level
23%
RSC Internacional scores more
47%

RSC Internacional at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rayo Vallecano II 5 – 2 RSC Internacional

Rayo Vallecano II beat RSC Internacional 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 in Madrid.