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RSC Internacional vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional63%
×Draw22%
Pozuelo Alarcón15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSC Internacional
1.91
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.81

RSC Internacional creates 136% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

creates per match

RSC Internacional
2.53
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

RSC Internacional
0.67
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw
85%
RSC Internacional or Pozuelo Alarcón
78%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
37%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+
38%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals
85%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
57%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
30%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
56%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
19%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
81%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.91

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

RSC Internacional scores more
63%
level
22%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
15%

RSC Internacional at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RSC Internacional 1 – 0 Pozuelo Alarcón

RSC Internacional beat Pozuelo Alarcón 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 6 in Madrid.