Pozuelo Alarcón 2–3 RSC Internacional

Pozuelo Alarcón

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

RSC Internacional

2/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón27%

×Draw23%

RSC Internacional50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pozuelo AlarcónExpected goals in this matchRSC Internacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.77

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.23

RSC Internacional

1.77

RSC Internacional creates 44% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 15 away

1.32

creates per match

2.33

1.22

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.32

RSC Internacional

2.33

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.22

RSC Internacional

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

RSC Internacional →

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw

50%

Pozuelo Alarcón or RSC Internacional

77%

Draw or RSC Internacional

73%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+

11%

RSC Internacional wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals

71%

Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals

35%

Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals

13%

RSC Internacional 1+ goals

83%

RSC Internacional 2+ goals

53%

RSC Internacional 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)

35%

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more

27%

level

23%

RSC Internacional scores more

50%

RSC Internacional at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff