RSC Internacional 2–1 Móstoles: Result & Stats

RSC Internacional

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Móstoles

11/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional57%

×Draw23%

Móstoles20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSC InternacionalExpected goals in this matchMóstoles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.99

RSC Internacional

1.81

Móstoles

0.99

RSC Internacional creates 83% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 76 away

2.53

creates per match

1.30

0.67

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

RSC Internacional

2.53

Móstoles

1.30

allows per match

RSC Internacional

0.67

Móstoles

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Móstoles →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw

80%

RSC Internacional or Móstoles

77%

Draw or Móstoles

43%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+

32%

Móstoles wins by 2+

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals

84%

RSC Internacional 2+ goals

54%

RSC Internacional 3+ goals

27%

Móstoles 1+ goals

63%

Móstoles 2+ goals

26%

Móstoles 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)

73%

Móstoles (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.81

Móstoles attack 1.30 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

RSC Internacional scores more

57%

level

23%

Móstoles scores more

20%

RSC Internacional at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff