Móstoles 0–1 RSC Internacional: Result & Stats

Móstoles

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

RSC Internacional

3/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 26Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Móstoles32%

×Draw24%

RSC Internacional44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MóstolesExpected goals in this matchRSC Internacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.67

Móstoles

1.40

RSC Internacional

1.67

RSC Internacional creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

2.33

1.01

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Móstoles

1.67

RSC Internacional

2.33

allows per match

Móstoles

1.01

RSC Internacional

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par

RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

RSC Internacional →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw

56%

Móstoles or RSC Internacional

76%

Draw or RSC Internacional

68%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+

15%

RSC Internacional wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals

75%

Móstoles 2+ goals

41%

Móstoles 3+ goals

17%

RSC Internacional 1+ goals

81%

RSC Internacional 2+ goals

50%

RSC Internacional 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)

42%

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Móstoles scores more

32%

level

24%

RSC Internacional scores more

44%

RSC Internacional at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff