RSC Internacional 4–0 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

RSC Internacional

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Las Rozas

2/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional58%

×Draw23%

Las Rozas19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSC InternacionalExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.95

RSC Internacional

1.84

Las Rozas

0.95

RSC Internacional creates 94% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 88 away

2.53

creates per match

1.23

0.67

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

RSC Internacional

2.53

Las Rozas

1.23

allows per match

RSC Internacional

0.67

Las Rozas

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Las Rozas →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw

81%

RSC Internacional or Las Rozas

77%

Draw or Las Rozas

42%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+

34%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals

84%

RSC Internacional 2+ goals

55%

RSC Internacional 3+ goals

28%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

61%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

25%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)

75%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.84

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

RSC Internacional scores more

58%

level

23%

Las Rozas scores more

19%

RSC Internacional at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSC Internacional vs Las Rozas

RSC Internacional beat Las Rozas 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5 in Madrid.

RSC Internacional vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: RSC Internacional vs Las Rozas