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Las Rozas vs RSC Internacional — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Las Rozas33%
×Draw23%
RSC Internacional44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.46
RSC Internacional
1.73

RSC Internacional creates 18% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.78
RSC Internacional
2.33

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.13
RSC Internacional
1.13

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

RSC Internacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
56%
Las Rozas or RSC Internacional
77%
Draw or RSC Internacional
67%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
15%
RSC Internacional wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
77%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
43%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
18%
RSC Internacional 1+ goals
82%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
52%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
43%
RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Las Rozas scores more
33%
level
23%
RSC Internacional scores more
44%

RSC Internacional at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs RSC Internacional

RSC Internacional beat Las Rozas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.