RSC Internacional 0–1 Getafe II: Result & Stats

RSC Internacional

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Getafe II

9/25/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional56%

×Draw23%

Getafe II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSC InternacionalExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.98

RSC Internacional

1.76

Getafe II

0.98

RSC Internacional creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 35 away

2.53

creates per match

1.29

0.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

RSC Internacional

2.53

Getafe II

1.29

allows per match

RSC Internacional

0.67

Getafe II

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Getafe II →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw

79%

RSC Internacional or Getafe II

77%

Draw or Getafe II

44%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+

31%

Getafe II wins by 2+

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals

83%

RSC Internacional 2+ goals

52%

RSC Internacional 3+ goals

26%

Getafe II 1+ goals

62%

Getafe II 2+ goals

26%

Getafe II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)

73%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Getafe II attack 1.29 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

RSC Internacional scores more

56%

level

23%

Getafe II scores more

21%

RSC Internacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSC Internacional 0–1 Getafe II

Getafe II beat RSC Internacional 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5 in Madrid.

RSC Internacional vs Getafe II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSC Internacional 0–1 Getafe II