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Getafe II vs RSC Internacional — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
1/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 18Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Getafe II33%
×Draw24%
RSC Internacional43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.42
RSC Internacional
1.67

RSC Internacional creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 15 away

creates per match

Getafe II
1.71
RSC Internacional
2.33

allows per match

Getafe II
1.00
RSC Internacional
1.13

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

RSC Internacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
57%
Getafe II or RSC Internacional
76%
Draw or RSC Internacional
67%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
15%
RSC Internacional wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
76%
Getafe II 2+ goals
41%
Getafe II 3+ goals
17%
RSC Internacional 1+ goals
81%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
50%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
43%
RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

RSC Internacional away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 1.71 + RSC Internacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

RSC Internacional attack 2.33 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Getafe II scores more
33%
level
24%
RSC Internacional scores more
43%

RSC Internacional at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Getafe II 2–3 RSC Internacional

RSC Internacional beat Getafe II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1 in Getafe.