RSC Internacional 5–0 Galapagar: Result & Stats

RSC Internacional

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Galapagar

3/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 23Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional64%

×Draw21%

Galapagar15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSC InternacionalExpected goals in this matchGalapagar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.83

RSC Internacional

1.95

Galapagar

0.83

RSC Internacional creates 135% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

2.53

creates per match

0.99

0.67

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

RSC Internacional

2.53

Galapagar

0.99

allows per match

RSC Internacional

0.67

Galapagar

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par

Galapagar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Galapagar →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw

85%

RSC Internacional or Galapagar

79%

Draw or Galapagar

36%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+

38%

Galapagar wins by 2+

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals

86%

RSC Internacional 2+ goals

58%

RSC Internacional 3+ goals

31%

Galapagar 1+ goals

56%

Galapagar 2+ goals

20%

Galapagar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)

81%

Galapagar (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Galapagar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Galapagar defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.95

Galapagar attack 0.99 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

RSC Internacional scores more

64%

level

21%

Galapagar scores more

15%

RSC Internacional at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSC Internacional 5–0 Galapagar

RSC Internacional beat Galapagar 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 5 in Madrid.

RSC Internacional vs Galapagar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSC Internacional 5–0 Galapagar